Recent analyses indicate a notable trend in Tesla's Cybertruck registrations, where a substantial number of these vehicles are being transferred to other entities owned by Elon Musk. This practice has led to discussions about the true market demand for the Cybertruck and its impact on Tesla's broader sales performance and inventory management.
According to S&P Global Mobility data, over 18% of all Cybertruck registrations in the United States during the fourth quarter were attributed to SpaceX. This translates to 1,279 out of 7,071 registered units. Additionally, other companies under Musk's umbrella, including xAI, Boring Co., and Neuralink, acquired another 60 Cybertrucks. Without these internal company transfers, the reported Cybertruck registrations would have seen a significant decrease of 51% in the fourth quarter. This acquisition trend continued into the early months of the following year, with an additional 225 units registered in January and February.
While the specific purposes for these large-scale acquisitions by SpaceX remain somewhat unclear, photographic and video evidence has shown numerous Cybertrucks parked idly on SpaceX properties in Texas. Previously, the lead Cybertruck engineer had indicated in October that SpaceX intended to replace its existing gas-powered support vehicles with Cybertrucks. Some of these vehicles appear to be utilized for security operations. However, the rationale behind xAI, an artificial intelligence and social media firm, procuring 50 electric pickups has not been publicly explained. The total financial value of these inter-company transactions is estimated to surpass $100 million, considering the Cybertruck's base price of approximately $70,000.
The challenges facing the Cybertruck's market presence extend beyond just one model. Elon Musk had previously projected annual sales of 250,000 units by 2025. However, the actual sales figure was closer to 20,000, representing a substantial 48% decline from the previous year's performance. Industry analysts, such as Karl Brauer, have gone as far as to label the Cybertruck, initially envisioned as Tesla's equivalent to the popular F-150, as a commercial disappointment. This weakness in demand is not confined to a single model. Tesla's overall vehicle deliveries in the first quarter amounted to 358,023 units, falling short of Wall Street's consensus expectation of 365,645. The company also produced 50,363 more vehicles than it sold across its entire product line, marking the largest accumulation of inventory in its history for a single quarter. This broader industry trend of reevaluating EV demand is also evident in actions by competitors, such as Ford Motor Co., which has halted production of its current-generation Lightning model with plans to introduce a range-extender hybrid as a replacement.
The market's anticipation for Tesla's second-quarter 2026 deliveries reflects these concerns. On Polymarket, a prediction market platform, the bracket for 375,000 to 400,000 deliveries holds the highest probability at 28%, followed by 350,000 to 375,000 at 24%, and 400,000 to 425,000 at 23%. These leading predictions all suggest delivery figures below the threshold required for Tesla to avoid a third consecutive annual decline. To match the previous year's total, the company would need to average over 444,000 deliveries per quarter for the remainder of the year, a scenario given a combined probability of only 14% by bettors. Despite these underlying concerns, Tesla's stock (TSLA) has recently shown some upward movement, trading around $393, up approximately 7.6% on a particular Wednesday and extending a five-day rally of about 12%, which began after a UBS upgrade from Sell to Neutral. However, the stock still remains down by approximately 14% year-to-date. This internal purchasing pattern and the broader demand challenges underscore a critical period for Tesla as it navigates evolving market dynamics and production efficiencies.